Quantum computing is transitioning from a theoretical physics pursuit to a strategic economic asset. This shift is redefining computational limits, presenting an opportunity for nations and industries to gain an enduring competitive advantage. For Europe, spearheaded by the EuroHPC Joint Undertaking, and for Portugal, with its focused domestic strategy, this era of quantum utility represents a critical inflection point for innovation and growth.
The immediate future of advanced computing lies not in the replacement of classical systems, but in their integration. This hybrid architecture leverages the data handling capabilities of High-Performance Computing (HPC) while offloading computationally intractable subproblems to dedicated quantum co-processors. Europe’s ambition is channelled through the EuroHPC Joint Undertaking (EuroHPC JU), which is actively building a federated network of high-performance quantum resources. This initiative ensures that industrial and academic users across the continent, including Portugal, gain critical early access to these tools, fostering a shared ecosystem of quantum readiness.
The most profound impact of quantum computing is its potential to address problems currently considered NP-hard (Nondeterministic Polynomial-time hard). These are the problems where the time required to find an optimal solution grows exponentially with the size of the input, rendering them "unsolvable" within a practical timeframe on any classical supercomputer. The ability of quantum systems to exist in superposition and perform parallel calculations offers the mathematical framework for finding solutions to these problems, such as certain complex optimisation, logistics, and material science challenges, in a reasonable time. While the full realisation of this power remains a theoretical goal, the pursuit is driving algorithmic breakthroughs across the global industry.
Beyond solving the currently intractable, quantum computing promises a radical improvement in energy efficiency for highly complex tasks. Contemporary exascale supercomputers are massive energy consumers, requiring 15 to 20 Megawatts (MW) of operational power. By contrast, a quantum processor's power draw is primarily for its necessary cryogenic cooling, often operating in the kilowatt (kW) range. For specific computational workloads, this delta can translate into orders of magnitude of energy and cost savings, transforming a prohibitive operational expenditure into a sustainable investment.
The commercial validation of quantum technology is rapidly accelerating. The global market, currently valued at approximately $1.3 billion, is forecast for a steep climb, potentially exceeding $16 billion by the mid-2030s. This growth is fuelled by industry pioneers pushing the boundaries of hardware development through diverse approaches. IonQ has emerged as a leader in trapped-ion quantum computing, focusing on high-reliability, high-fidelity qubits. Conversely, D-Wave specialises in quantum annealing, a targeted approach for complex optimisation problems. Simultaneously, the research divisions of IBM and Google continue to innovate with superconducting architectures. This robust private sector activity underscores the urgency for national preparedness to integrate these solutions.
Portugal's engagement in this field is centred on leveraging its national research and computing assets. The Deucalion supercomputer in Guimarães is not merely a computing resource but the foundation for the QUANTUMvLAB initiative. By integrating quantum simulators and teaching tools onto Deucalion, Portugal is strategically developing a critical mass of engineers and scientists fluent in quantum algorithms. This commitment to training the future quantum workforce is arguably the most valuable national asset, ensuring that local industry is prepared to capitalise on fault-tolerant quantum hardware when it becomes widely available.
The economic opportunity for Portugal extends directly to its Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). Historically, access to high-performance computing was limited by cost, infrastructure, or a lack of specialised personnel. However, current initiatives by the EuroHPC JU to build a pan-European network of quantum computers, with federated resources in countries such as Czechia (LUMI-Q), France, Germany, Italy, and Poland, combined with workforce development, are making strides toward democratising access. An SME in the Portuguese transport sector, for instance, will eventually be able to subscribe to quantum-assisted optimisation services to solve complex routing problems previously beyond its computational capacity.
The strategic challenge is to bridge the knowledge gap, empowering Portuguese SMEs to understand, pilot, and ultimately exploit these emerging hybrid quantum-classical services to enhance their global competitiveness.
